After Rochester and Strood. Where next?

Blog

After Rochester and Strood. Where next?

25 Nov 2014

Ukip supporters with an 'I'm voting Ukip sign' canvassing voters during the 2015 UK general election. Wikimedia, Licensed under the Creative Commons

The Danish Nobel prize winning physicist Nils Bohr observed that prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. He wasn’t thinking about the 2015 general election when he said this, but he might as well have been.

Professor Andrew Geddes,
Professor of Politics, University of Sheffield

Get our latest research, insights and events delivered to your inbox

Share this and support our work

The Rochester and Strood by-election makes things more uncertain. It might get us thrown out of the ‘political science’ club, but here are 5 things that Mark Reckless’ win shows that we don’t know about the May 2015 general election.

We still think of politics as a left versus right clash, but is 2015 going to be an ‘up-down’ election: the people against a political class that they see as failed and out of touch?
If Labour is up then surely the Conservatives are down, and vice versa? But the day after Rochester and Strood both Labour and the Conservatives are down. Is zero sum politics dead and buried?
Can UKIP break the mould? They just won what experts listed as their 271st most winnable seat. Perhaps, as Nigel Farage said, all bets are off? Will support continue to drain from the mainstream parties to their smaller rivals like UKIP and the Greens? If it does, the dynamics of elections and coalition politics are transformed.
Can things get worse for the Liberal Democrats? This question has been asked for the last four years and the answer has tended to be yes. How much lower can they go? In Rochester and Strood they were polling at 1%, with the margin of error this could put them at -2%, which is truly unexplored territory.
Social media was seen as a way for politicians to connect with the electorate and for democratic debate to be widened and energised. Emily Thornberry didn’t get that memo.

These are all things that we don’t know about the 2015 general election. Keep checking this blog for even more.

Latest / Highlights

News / Parliament Matters Bulletin: What’s coming up in Parliament this week? 27-31 October 2025

The Attorney General, the Chief Secretary to the PM and the Head of the Crown Prosecution Service will face questions after the collapse of the China spying case. Nigel Farage plans to introduce a Bill to withdraw from the ECHR. MPs will question Yvette Cooper and Pat McFadden, and debate property service charges and end-of-life care. The Conservatives will choose Tuesday’s Opposition Day topic. In the Lords, Peers will debate Ukraine and hear from the Justice Minister and hospice and care sector representatives on the assisted dying bill. The Victims and Courts Bill and the Sentencing Bill have their final Commons stages, while in the Lords the Planning and Infrastructure Bill and the Employment Rights Bill face further scrutiny.

News / Parliament vs. Prince Andrew - Parliament Matters podcast, Episode 111

This week, we explore how far Parliament can go in holding members of the Royal Family to account, as pressure grows for MPs to scrutinise Prince Andrew’s finances and royal titles. We ask whether Nigel Farage should get a right of reply at Prime Minister’s Questions amid his growing prominence, and examine Labour’s reshuffle of select committee posts and calls for greater transparency in how they’re filled. Plus, a look back at the rebuilding of the House of Commons Chamber, 75 years after its postwar reopening. Please help us by completing our Listener Survey. It will only take a few minutes.

News / Parliament’s spying scandal: Why was the China case dropped? - Parliament Matters podcast, Episode 110

It’s been a tumultuous week in Westminster, with three ministerial statements on the China spying case and fresh questions about the collapse of charges against two alleged spies. We are joined by Cambridge public law expert Professor Mark Elliott to untangle the legal and political fallout, from espionage claims inside MPs’ offices to confusion over whether China was ever designated an “enemy state.” We also explore looming government challenges — the Budget, Afghan data leak, local election setbacks — and the membership of the new Select Committee to consider the assisted dying legislation in the House of Lords. Please help us by completing our Listener Survey. It will only take a few minutes.

Briefings / Assisted dying - The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill: Rolling news

Stay informed with updates and analysis on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill as it moves through Parliament. Learn about the debates, procedures, decisions, and key milestones shaping the assisted dying legislation.

News / What are the Usual Channels? A short history of Westminster whipping - Parliament Matters podcast, Episode 108

In this episode, we talk to political journalist Seb Whale about his new book, The Usual Channels, which reveals the hidden world of Westminster’s whips. Seb charts how party discipline has evolved – from the stormy politics of the 1970s and the Maastricht battles of the 1990s to the legendary “black book,” the Brexit showdowns and the short-lived Liz Truss premiership. He explains how the whips’ office has adapted to a modern Parliament – especially with the influx of women MPs – and why, even today, whips still wield decisive influence over MPs’ careers and remain indispensable despite the pressures of contemporary politics. Please help us by completing our Listener Survey. It will only take a few minutes.